Let’s Bet on Clayton Kershaw
This will be a continual post displaying the odds for every 2017 Clayton Kershaw start via Bovada.com.
This was an idea I had last season, that collapsed after Clayton Kershaw went on the DL with back issues.
I’ve decided to revive it, and track our confidence on each of his starts.
Our rules are very simple, bet on the “moneyline” for every Clayton Kershaw start. That’s the objective part. We only need the Dodgers to win, and Kershaw gives them a better chance to do so than anybody else in the majors.
The subjective part is how much money to put down. Our guidelines for that are pretty simple. We’re going to focus on the opposing starter’s FIP and go one of two directions. 3.75 FIP or above, we’ll bet $30. 3.74 FIP or below, we’ll bet $20. Total starting pot will be $100.
FIP takes some time to stabilize, so for Kershaw’s first start against the Padres we bet $30, and unsurprisingly won, with odds of -370. From that game on, we should have at least a start or two from all the pitchers Kershaw will face. If any outliers come up – such as a rookie debut or pitcher off the DL – we’ll reassess the FIP parameter.
Updated 6/20: Two and a half months into the MLB season and we’ve doubled our stash. At this point, it seems unfair to keep taking advantage of Kershaw’s dominance. Even after a rocky home start against the Mets on Monday, our confidence is still sky high for the southpaw. He’ll face the Rockies at home this coming Sunday.
Photo via the Flickr Creative Commons, thanks to Keith Allison for the shot of Kershaw.
Odds from Bovada.com
Statistics from Fangraphs.com